For what certainly appears to be a weak free agency class for quarterbacks, the trade market has made sure we will have enough drama to last us through the offseason. Players such as Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr, or even Lamar Jackson have been rumored to be on the block (with Carr now being a definite) and with many teams suffering at the QB position, it wouldn't shock me if a team bit on a veteran. Lets take a way too early peek at who will be starting for each team come 2023.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen
Duh.
Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa
There have been some rumors recently that the Dolphins might try to get Tom Brady again, which honestly wouldn't shock me if that did pan out. After all, they basically already spent a first round pick to get him. That being said, Tua was looking like one of the best quarterbacks in the league pre-concussions, and it would be smart of the Dolphins to hold onto that upside.
New England Patriots: Mac Jones
There have been some discussions around Jones having some disagreements with the coaching staff, which doesn't surprise me given the fact they still employ Matt Patricia. I don't think that's enough from the Patriots to move on from Jones, who will probably never be a superstar but still has enough potential, especially given they just barely missed the playoffs this season.
New York Jets: Aaron Rodgers
This one is fun. Its basically guaranteed that the next Jets quarterback isn't currently on their roster. They can look to some veterans (Derek Carr comes to mind,) but why not swing for the fences for one of the best to ever do it? The Packers seem ready to move on, as does Rodgers given his postgame comments after Week 18. Add in the fact that his guaranteed $50+ million dollars kicks in soon, and Rodgers time in Green Bay might be up. It would take some fancy cap maneuvering and some draft picks, but Rodgers with Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall and Eljiah Moore would be lethal.
AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow
Burrow has already made his case for being a top three QB in the league, and if he finds his way back to the Super Bowl, the crown might be his for the taking.
Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson
Ravens fans want an extension, fans of other teams want a trade request. Both would be fun, but realistically Baltimore will most likely franchise tag him for this season. Baltimore can't trade him considering how incompetent their offense has been without him, but Jackson won't get the full contract he wants due to injuries. Regardless, please get him a receiver.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Kenny Pickett
Pickett had what ended up being a very solid, if not normal rookie campaign: learned from the bench, got started and had a rough go of it, but learned from his mistakes and improved mightily towards the end of the season. There's a lot of promise for this team going forward and I'm really excited to see the Pickett-Pickens connection develop.
Cleveland Browns: Deshaun Watson
You already paid him $230 million guaranteed dollars, so you can't not play him. Even if he had a worse EPA/Dropback than Zack Wilson.
AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence
Who would've thought that giving a generational talent an actual head coach would work wonders? The Urban Meyer hiring might go down as one of the worst NFL decisions of the century.
Tennessee Titans: Jacoby Brissett
Money is tight in Tennessee. The Titans don't have a ton of can space, which isn't great for a team that needs some help at WR and on the O-Line. Enter Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill has always been good, but never great for the Titans, leading them to a one seed last season. However, by cutting him before 2023, Tennessee would save a whopping $27 million by not having to pay his base salary. I expect the Titans to look elsewhere for QB, and can probably get similar production out of Brissett, one of 2022's most underrated signal callers.
Indianapolis Colts: CJ Stroud
After publicly saying they have no interest in Derek Carr, I believe this to finally be the year the Colts draft a quarterback. We still have months of combines and pro days to go, but Stroud appears to fit the mold for what the Colts want in a quarterback. I fully expect the Colts to give up the farm to move up to #1 and take the QB of their choice.
Houston Texans: Bryce Young
If the Colts do indeed trade up, the Texans QB choice becomes simple: take whoever the Colts don't. In this case, that is Bryce Young, whose height concerns might drop him behind Stroud on draft night. Still, Young is a great improvement for a Texans team lacking talent on both sides of the ball, but especially under center.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs: Pat Mahomes
Remember when Mitchell Trubisky was drafted eight picks before him lol
Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert
Despite Brandon Staley's best efforts, Herbert continues to get better every season. Watching him and Mahomes go at it two times a season always result in some of the best regular season matchups, and I'm excited to finally watch him in the playoffs.
Las Vegas Raiders: Tom Brady
The only better place to be a rich, single 45 year old than Florida? Well, Las Vegas of course! In all seriousness, Brady appeared frustrates all season in Tampa, and could look to reunite with old Patriots coach Josh McDaniels in Nevada. The Raiders have too many older assets to rebuild, so getting a veteran has to be the play. Brady throwing to DaVante Adams sounds too fun for it not to happen.
Denver Broncos: Russell Wilson
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NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts
After a full offseason of doubts and questions, Hurts put on an absolute clinic and was a legitimate MVP candidate before his injury. With a couple of playoff wins he can cement his place in the current upper echelon of quarterbacks.
Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott
As mistake prone as he may be, there's no denying Dak is integral to what Dallas is building. That being said, he REALLY needs to be more careful with the ball.
New York Giants: Daniel Jones
As the worlds biggest Daniel Jones hater for his first few season, Brian Daboll has worked magic with him. He hasn't been asked to do too much with his arm, but more importantly Jones has cut out the turnovers, which doomed him in the beginning of his career. His contract situation will be one of the more interesting storylines this offseason, but he's earned a new deal.
Washington Commanders: Derek Carr
In my opinion, the perfect landing spot for Carr. Great weapons, a solid defense on the other side of the ball, and less pressure than a larger market. For the Commanders, this is a no brainer, as they had arguably one of the worst QB department (sorry, Taylor Heinecke fans.) This team was a game out of the playoffs with mediocre quarterbacks, so a potential Carr addition would make the NFC East a nightmare.
NFC North
Minnesota Vikings: Kirk Cousins
The Vikings just signed Cousins to an extension through 2023, which means they clearly are committed to him. He has his highs and his lows for sure, which means that his playoff performance will go a long way towards getting another long contract.
Detroit Lions: Jared Goff
Many mock drafts have the Lions going QB with their top 6 pick, but Goff has done enough this season to warrant another opportunity. This Lions team is on the come up, and Goff has Super Bowl experience under his belt, albeit a terrible one. Regardless, the Lions should use that draft pick for their defense and continue to build a talented group of playmakers around Goff.
Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love
It's time. Jordan Love continues the trend of Green Bay quarterbacks and three years of backup experience and is handed the reigns. He hasn't looked incredibly impressive in his limited starts, but with enough first team reps and experience he can develop in a familiar scenario. As much as it pains the Packers to part ways with Rodgers, that $60+ million a year cap hit would make for some harsh cuts around other parts of the roster, so Love is the cheaper and smarter option.
Chicago Bears: Justin Fields
All these reports of the Bears potentially falling in love with another QB are flat out disrespectful. Fields did all he could this season to earn another year as the Bears starter, and the Bears priorities should be at basically every position besides signal caller. He still has ways to go as a passer, but his rushing upside is too hard to ignore. Plus, his #1 WR for a good amount of the season was Cole Kmet. Please get him more weapons.
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jimmy Garoppolo
Obviously, the Bucs don't want Brady to leave. This is a team just removed from a Super Bowl with older weapons on the offensive side of the ball. If he does end up bolting for Vegas, Tampa should look at Jimmy G to fill in the Brady-sized void. Him and Brady have similar pocket passer profiles that shouldn't make the transition hard, and Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will give him reliable targets. For Garoppolo, his time in the Bay Area is done with Trey Lance waiting and Brock Purdy emerging, so he will be looking for a place to start.
New Orleans Saints: Jameis Winston
I still have no idea why the Saints gave up on Winston. Even if he was playing bad (he wasn't) and if Andy Dalton was a better alternative (he also wasn't), switching to Dalton made no sense because they didn't have their own first round pick. Anyways, the Saints have no money left to spend and no pick for a top QB, so unless they take a flier on another cheap vet (Taylor Heinicke? Gardner Minshew?) the job is Winston's to lose.
Atlanta Falcons: Ryan Tannehill
Marcus Mariota was awful, and Desmond Ridder was arguably worse. Arthur Smith has been adamant that he wants a run first team, so why not go back to his Tennessee roots and reunite with Tannehill? Given their past history Smith knows what to expect, and Tannehill will have two great weapons in Kyle Pitts and Drake London in the passing game. Suddenly, this Falcons offense looks a lot better.
Carolina Panthers: Will Levis
Sam Darnold actually looked the part during his few starts towards the end of the season, but it shouldn't deter the Panthers from taking a swing on Levis. You can keep Darnold around as an interim QB until Levis is ready to take the reigns, but rolling out with another season of middling veteran QB play is a recipe for disaster.
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers: Trey Lance
Some fans are going to be upset if/when the team goes back to Lance, but it would be remiss of the organization to not see Lance's potential through. The man worth three first round picks, Lance has had several injuries cut his career short so far, but a fully healthy Lance would potentially make that offense a juggernaut. Brock Purdy has been a revaluation, but the 49ers should not be complacent here. Barring a Super Bowl championship/MVP for Purdy, the job should be Lance's to lose again.
Seattle Seahawks: Geno Smith
The best story of the season, Smith has more than earned another chance to start for the Seahawks. Even if he isn't in the long term future of the franchise, he has shown to fit in well with what the team wants to run, and has great chemistry with all his teammates. Some might want Seattle to take a quarterback with their pick from the Broncos, but I doubt Pete Carroll wants to enter a rebuild this late into his career.
Los Angeles Rams: Matthew Stafford
Now that Sean McVay is coming back, all bets are back on for a Rams comeback. For a team that has no draft picks or cap space, the Rams need to extend their championship window as long as possible. Stafford had a bad year that ended with injury, but he's still the best option and a recent Super Bowl champion. If he is unable to start, Baker Mayfield has filled in admirably and should be kept around as a backup at worst.
Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray (with Gardner Minshew to start)
What a disastrous season. Kyler Murray's injury means that he most likely will not be able to start the season, which means the Cardinals need a good stopgap for the beginning of the season. Gardner Minshew had a hot and cold couple of starts, but should be able to keep Arizona afloat until Murray is ready. In the meantime, the Cardinals need to focus on a new coach and maybe not trading Deandre Hopkins?
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