Tanking is hard.
As a Texans fan who has watched every game this season, it becomes hard to believe we weren't the worst team in football. But here we are, and the Bears have earned the first selection after ending the season 1-13. Congrats Bears fans!
With that out of the way, here is how I believe the NFL Draft will shake up now that picks 1-18 are determined. While I am not entirely sold on these crop of QBs, the difference in have's vs have nots in the QB market is only growing wider, and teams are beginning to feel the pressure.
Note: I am only predicting one trade here, only because I feel it is essential for the flow of this draft.
1. Indianapolis Colts via Chicago Bears: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Anddd here is said trade. Is there a chance the Colts can land either Young/Stroud at 1.04 without a trade. Absolutely. That being said, there are going to be several teams inquiring about the first selection, and with the Texans almost certainly picking a QB at 2, the Colts don't (and shouldn't) take any chances and make this trade. Obviously size is a concern with Young, but he makes up for it with his arm and by being the definition of the word "intangible."
2. Houston Texans: CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State
After Texans'ing their way out of the first pick, the Texans take their consolation prize of QBs in Stroud, although his draft stock is way on the rise after his performance vs Georgia. Stroud has a great sense in the pocket and is very accurate, and showed some great mental toughness in the Buckeyes hard fought loss to the Bulldogs. His athleticism and arm strength leave a bit to be desired, but there is a very good chance he ends up as the best QB of this class.
3. Arizona Cardinals: Will Anderson, Edge, Alabama
Will Anderson has it all. After a season to forget, the Cardinals are faced with arguably the easiest decision of the draft and take the lab-made pass rusher out of Alabama. Anderson is a fantastic combination of size, strength and speed, which all should translate very well to the pro level. His lack of production his senior year may be worrisome, but for a team looking to replace the newly retired J.J. Watt, Anderson should be a no brainer.
4. Chicago Bears via Indianapolis Colts: Jalen Carter, Georgia
Chicago will have plenty of suitors for the number one pick; the reason I believe they choose the Colts' offer is because they can still end up with a top 4 pick, and subsequently Jalen Carter. Carter is an absolute force on the line, anchoring a stout Georgia defense all season long. Like Anderson, college production might be a concern, and teams might look at the Bulldogs not playing Carter in key scenarios during the semifinals as a red flag. That being said, this Bears team is abysmal on defense, and Carter is a much needed talent.
5. Seattle Seahawks via Denver Broncos: Myles Murphy, Clemson
A dream season for Seattle ends with a top 5 pick, and they use it on Murphy to help what is also a porous defense. Murphy moves faster than a 275 lb player has any right to, and that size helps him overpower linemen on his way to the quarterback. He might take some time to acclimate to the NFL game, but he should give Seattle a dominant edge rusher for years to come.
6. Detroit Lions via L.A. Rams: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Another team that exceeded expectations this season, the Lions are a well oiled machine on offense but struggled mightily defensively. Aiden Hutchinson is a future All-Pro player, so I think the Lions focus their attention towards the secondary. Gonzalez was a ball hawk for Oregon last season, with four picks last season for the Ducks. His 6-2 frame and great speed makes him my favorite to be the first DB off the board, although the rest of the top level ones aren't far behind.
7. Las Vegas Raiders: Paris Johnson Jr, OT, Ohio State
The Derek Carr era is over, and its not hard to imagine Josh McDaniels having a big say in the next QB for better or worse (its for worse.) I tinkered with the idea of going with Will Levis here, but with Davante Adams and Darren Waller getting older, a veteran QB might be more in play. Paris Johnson Jr. has been stellar in pass protection, and should be a sound piece of the offensive line for whoever is under center in Vegas next season.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas Tech
The Falcons pass rush is AWFUL, which means that Tyree Wilson is a pick the Falcons should have no difficulty making. Another mobile 275 pounder, Wilson should immediately help a unit that has recorded less than 40 sacks in the past two seasons. Like the Raiders I can see an argument for QB here, but I think the Falcons would take their chances on a veteran as well.
9. Carolina Panthers: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
I can imagine the Panthers trading up for a QB, but in this exercise they get lucky and land Levis at 9. While I'm not incredibly high on Levis, its impossible to deny he possesses the athletic traits GMs go crazy for. With his great arm strength and athleticism, he has a chance to go even higher if and when he impresses at his pro day.
10. Philadelphia Eagles via New Orleans Saints: Joey Porter, CB, Penn State
Talk about a luxury pick. There aren't that many weaknesses with this Eagles team, but their secondary is getting older and Darius Slay is set to hit free agency soon. Porter was inconsistent at times in college, but his size and athleticism should allow him to thrive, not to mention having some great veteran leadership to learn from.
11 Tennessee Titans: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
With his unique size and speed, Johnston is the WR1/WR2 across most draft boards. A 6-4 215 lb receiver with his skill set does not come around often, and the Titans need to take advantage and get their new quarterback some weapons. I highly debated an O-Lineman here as well, but that WR corps is thin and whoever ends up starting under center in Tennessee next season needs a lot more help.
12. Houston Texans via Cleveland Browns: Bryan Breese, DL, Clemson
A wide receiver very easily could've been the pick here, but to call the Texans run defense abysmal last season would be putting it nicely. Breese's slide down the draft board ends in Houston; he should start immediately and make an impact. The Texans now have a new leader on both the offense and the defense, and can use some draft capital to grab a WR in the second round.
13. New York Jets: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
The top three QBs have been gone for some time, and the Jets would much rather grab a veteran QB here than roll the dice with a project. Skoronski falling to them is a perfect pick; he should slide into a starting role right away. He was an excellent pass blocker in college, something the Jets were lacking last season due to injury and has a chance to be a building blcok on the line.
14. New England Patriots: Jordan Addison, WR, USC
A bit of a disappointing season comes to an end in New England, and with Belichick coming back for another season, it appears to be playoffs or bust for this franchise. Mac Jones needs some more weapons, and with Jakobi Meyers entering free agency, they cannot go into the 2023 campaign with Kendrick Bourne as WR1. That's where Addison comes in; an explosive athlete, he has the potential to be the weapon Jones needs for a playoff run.
15. Green Bay Packers: Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
The entire fate of the Packers offseason depends on Aaron Rodgers. If he elects to stay, the Packers need to get him some weapons, and this one comes in the form of a 6'7", 270 lb. monster of a tight end. Washington might not be as polished of a pass catcher as fellow TE prospect Michael Mayer, but his size and speed makes him a great run blocker already. With Mercades Lewis pushing 40 and Robert Tonyan set to hit free agency, this is a swing for the fences that is justified.
16. Washington Commanders: Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
Another great DB prospect in this class, Smith was lockdown with the Gamecocks over the past two seasons. This cornerback class is long and fast, and Smith is no exception. With an already devastating defensive line, the Commanders should look to the secondary to beef up their defense to compete in a suddenly strong NFC East.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
A year that started off poorly in Pittsburgh ended up three points away from the playoffs, which bodes well for the future. The Steelers could use some help on the line to protect Kenny Pickett, and Jones fits the bill for this team. He might be a bit more of a project compared to the two lineman drafted prior, but he should have no problem acclimating to the NFL level after his time in Georgia.
18. Detroit Lions: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
After addressing the defense with the Rams pick early on, the Lions can look to fill the TJ Hockenson sized void left in their offense with Mayer. An already established pass catcher, Mayer gives Jared Goff and the Lions another weapon in what has suddenly become a prolific offense in Detroit. A great route runner, Mayer just needs to tighten up a bit as a blocker, but the pieces are all there for what you want at the TE position.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Hot take time! If we're being honest, I'm not buying into the Richardson hype as much as others. There is a lot, and I mean a LOT, to work on in his game. That being said, the Bucs title window is quickly closing, and between Brady, Fournette, Evans and the rest of the gang, they're not getting any younger. If you can convince Brady to come back for one more season, why not draft a project and have him learn from the best to ever do it?
20. Seattle Seahawks: Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia
Ringo's draft position most likely took a hit after getting picked on by Marvin Harrison Jr., but I still believe he will be successful in the right scheme. Another fast and long defensive back in this class, Ringo should shine next to Tariq Woolen, and the Seahawks could have a defensive revamp on their hands with this first round.
21 Jacksonville Jaguars: Brian Branch, S, Alabama
A fantastic comeback season for the Jaguars has been held back by their pass coverage, which is where Branch would come into play. An outstanding performance in the Sugar Bowl boosted Branch's draft stock, and he will become essential for a defense in Jacksonville that has improved, but is still working on finding its footing.
22. Miami Dolphins: Forfeited
23. New York Giants: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
WR seems like the easy option here, but the truth is that the Giants need to stay well rounded on all sides of the ball. Three of their top cornerbacks will be free agents by 2024, so New York needs a plan in place for the future. Witherspoon is a bit on the shorter side, but was a playmaker for Illinois and should learn a lot from the rest of the Giants secondary his first season.
24. Baltimore Ravens: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Baltimore has, bar none, the worst WR room in the entire league. There will for sure be injury concerns with JSN during the combine, but the Ravens need to take a chance on a receiver here, and he is my favorite one remaining. You have to keep Lamar Jackson happy here, and that involves getting more weapons outside of Mark Andrews to ignite this offense.
25. Los Angeles Chargers: Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State
Rashawn Slater has been impeccable at LT, but RT has been a position of weakness for the Chargers. There might be other more refined prospects in this class, but the Chargers take Jones, who has great experience at the college level at the right of the line. Smith-Njigba would have been a fun pick here if he fell, but this allows the Chargers to get Herbert some more time in the pocket to use his incredible arm.
26. Dallas Cowboys: Eli Ricks, CB, Alabama
The secondary has become a problem point for the Cowboys towards the second half of this season, as they've become prone to giving up the big play. Ricks is a smart corner that always seems to find his way to the ball, which paired with Trevon Diggs will give Dallas two ballhawks at the corners. His speed leaves a bit to be desired, but would be a great fit in Arlington.
27. Cincinnati Bengals: Nolan Smith, Edge, Georgia
Now "officially" in the upper echelon of the AFC, the Bengals need all the help they can get on the defensive front. Competing against Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs means you need to get pressure on the QB early and often, and taking an edge rusher here does just that. Smith is a bit undersized, but makes up for it with explosiveness and speed.
28. Minnesota Vikings: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Patrick Peterson will be a free agent, and the Vikings CB room will get a whole lot worse if he leaves. Although undersized, Witherspoon possesses the knowledge and speed to get after the ball, which is necessary if they hope to make deep playoff runs consistently. WR was also a possibility here, but Adam Theilen has one more season in him at least where they can afford to wait.
29. Denver Broncos: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
What a disaster of a season for the Broncos. The defense held its own for the majority of the season, but the offense just got no production going, so here they are getting arguably the best player in the draft in Robinson. Jav0nte Williams is great, but he's coming off serious injury and Robinson's explosiveness and talent will be too hard to ignore for a team that desperately needs it.
30. Buffalo Bills: Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson
The Bills don't have a ton of needs, but Simpson would be a fresh start at linebacker of Tremaine Edmunds does not return. A great player who's draft stock might be hurt by positional value, Simpson is elite vs both the run and the pass, and has a chance to develop into a great talent on one of the best defenses.
31 Kansas City Chiefs: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
Not the flashiest pick, but for a team with very few holes, you can't go wrong with protecting the franchise. Harrison has been stellar for Oklahoma and can learn a lot behind a very talented and smart offensive scheme, even if he doesn't start right away.
32. Philadelphia Eagles: Andre Carter, Edge, Army
The Eagles offense is a well oiled machine, so lets continue to beef up that defense with Andre Carter. Initially a receiver going into college, Carter has all the tools and athletic traits you want as an edge rusher. The Eagles have time to develop him into what could hopefully be a key part of their defense going forward.
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