I think it becomes apparent you have a problem when the day after you (lose) another championship, your first instinct is to write up a mock draft for 9 months from now... but here we are. This was surprisingly difficult to make, and even though I disagree with basically every decision I've made, I've made them. So here goes nothing, to write down a mock draft I will hate come draft time just to scratch the fantasy football sized hole that is already filling my heart.
Format: 10 Team, PPR
1.1. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
This one came down to a coin flip for me, which is a nice change of pace from the *auto draft CMC* notions of years prior. However, Taylor just had too good of a season not to make him #1 overall. Averaging over 17 touches a game with a 65+% snap count is enough to make most RBs a first rounder, but when you're able to turn that into 5.5 YPC and 22.5 fantasy points a game? Sign me up. (Also, he isn't even 23 yet?) I'll be taking Taylor any time I happen to luck into 1.01 here.
1.2. Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
A foot injury took away what would've been a fantasy season for the ages, but lets just reflect on what he accomplished when he was healthy. First of all, he still ended the season as RB17 despite playing *8* games, with a whopping 24.2 fantasy points per game. He also had over TWENTY SEVEN rush attempts per game, which I just found out now for the first time and I still can't believe. Plus, in his 8 games this year he had almost the same amount of receptions as his entire 2020 season. Putting him at 2 feels disrespectful. Lets call it 1a and 1b.
1.3. Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
Now this is where it gets tricky. Is this too reactionary? Maybe. But the numbers from this past year are too good to pass up. Ekeler was the second highest scoring running back despite missing a game, good for 21 PPG. His rush attempts are a bit lower than the two above him, but he makes up for it in the passing game with a stellar 82 targets on the year, making him a PPR monster. There are definitely people who will go with safer, more traditional options at 1.3, but in this format I love Ekeler here. Plus, he tells you when he's out and who to pick up. Who doesn't love that?
1.4. Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
Alvin couldn't catch a break this year. Four quarterbacks, a shuffling O Line, and no weapons to throw to meant that defenses could zone in on him all game long, making rushing yards few and far between. Still, Kamara was able to turn that into a RB10 finish (despite missing 4 games), averaging 18 PPR points per game, most notably with 65 targets over those 12 games. That was despite having "quarterbacks" of Trevor Siemian and Ian Book for 5 of those. With a much healthier team in 2022, I'd feel very confident keeping Kamara at about the same ADP as last year.
1.5. Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Fantasy football was pretty simple this year. There was one league where I picked Cooper Kupp one pick after somebody got Julio Jones, and I won that league. In another league, I picked Brandon Aiyuk 3 picks before Kupp and got dead last. Whatever pick you got him, Kupp turned in one of the best WR seasons of the last 20 years, with an absurd 138-1829-15 stat line and 25 (!!) PPR points per game. I have no problem making him my first WR off the board, as long as he keeps having those breakfasts with Matt Stafford before games.
1.6. Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Here is where it gets tricky. I really don't love taking Dalvin this high, but the volume and talent is too hard to deny. Despite putting up a few horrible games, he still averaged 16.4 points per game. Sure, you might have to reach for Alexander Mattison when he inevitably misses 4 games over the course of the season. However, I would still feel confident taking him here, and quite frankly, in retrospect Cook at 1.6 might end up being a steal.
1.7. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers
Quick note: this list is just a summary of where I personally would take players if I had to draft today. CMC might end up going much, much lower than this. Which would be great, because any draft pick you can get him for below this has a chance to be a massive steal once the year is over. I mean, there's a reason he was the consensus first pick off the board two years in a row: he lead the league in touches, scrimmage yards and total touchdowns in 2019. Of course, the re-injury risk is massive. But if he stays healthy, you can potentially get the RB1 at an insane discount.
1.8. Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers
Now here is where doing an early mock draft hurts. Adams and Aaron Rodgers have arguably the best connection a QB/WR duo have ever had. They could complete 25 yard out routes in their sleep. That being said, the "last dance" narrative this season has me nervous if they will play together in 2022. Granted, they still might win the Super Bowl, which would change things a bit. And that's great! In any non Cooper Kupp year Adams is the WR1, and with a whopping 162 targets through week 17, I see no reason not to take him this high if the Packers run it back.
1.9. Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
One of my biggest draft regrets of 2021 was avoiding Najee. Aging QB? Deteriorating O-Line? Rookie? Way too many red flags for me. So naturally, all he did was put up RB3 numbers, leading the league with 366 touches so far. However, I do have to put him a bit lower, assuming Ben retires after this year. Considering Big Ben couldn't seem to throw a ball more than 5 yards this season, Harris was his safety blanket of a checkdown. Will his next quarterback check down as much? Probably not. However, he is still the clear workhorse RB in Pittsburgh, and that should stay that way for a long long time.
1.10. Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Oh my God this was hard. I finally settled on Mixon here, which makes me realize how much I'd love having the turn at round 1 here. The "injury-prone" Mixon didn't miss a game this fantasy season, putting up career highs across the board and finishing as a top 5 RB in PPR. On a high octane offense like the Bengals (weird sentence), I love Mixon here for next year, and should return great value, especially at this turn.
Honorable Mentions (AKA Early Second Rounders)
2.1 Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
One of the best first two seasons a WR has ever had, JJ could very well end up being a first round pick and pretty much everyone would understand. Unrealistically talented and should be a top 5 WR for years to come
2.2 Ja'Maar Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Basically replace everything above I said about Jefferson, just switch "two" for "one". Too bad he can't catch an NFL ball, right guys? (Just kidding, I avoided Chase in drafts too. Shame on me.) Shoutout to whoever this guy won a 'ship for in 2021.
2.3 Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns
Chubb still averaged 16 PPG in what people might consider a down year for him, but I expect a rebound in 2022. As long as the Baker gets healthy and the coaching staff realizes you can run the ball, Chubb should be a solid low end RB1 at worst in 2022.
2.4 Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
While he might not have returned late first round value last year, the Packers seem to have figured out how to utilize this backfield. Jones got a lot of work in the passing game this year, and while his ceiling is limited by AJ Dillon, I still would love to get him in the middle of the 2nd round.
2.5 Deebo Samuel, WR, San Fransisco 49ers
Deebo came out of nowhere this year to be the focal point of the 49ers offense, leading the team in both rushing and receiving touchdowns while finishing as the overall WR2. This might seem low for him, but I'm not as high on Trey Lance as others. However, with the amount of plays they draw up for him every game, I see him as a safe floor with massive big-play potential.
Also considered: Tyreek Hill, Ezekiel Elliot, Travis Kelce.
2̶.6̶ A̶l̶l̶e̶n̶ R̶o̶b̶i̶n̶s̶
This was much harder than I expected - feel free to roast me anywhere possible because I will change these draft picks probably once a week until September. Also make sure to follow the page - I will be hopefully writing much more in 2022. Thanks!
Comments